Sunday, March 19, 2006

Why the US is Losing the War in Iraq

Why are we having so much trouble with the insurgents in Iraq? This was supposed to be a very short war that wouldn't cost America every penny in our coffers.

You will remember that on November 16, 2002, Donald Rumsfeld was quoted as saying that if war erupted in Iraq, it wouldn't last more than "five days or five weeks or five months."

Gaurdian Unlimited
November 16, 2002

Iraqi Army is Tougher Than US Believes

"I can't say if the use of force would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn't going to last any longer than that," he said. "It won't be a world war three."
This quote is from an interview Donald Rumsfeld had with Steve Croft of CBS Radio Connect on November 14, 2002. This interview is supposed to be hosted on the Department of Defense web site, but their site seems to be down. Here is the cached page of the transcript.

Rumsfled used this same line a second time on February 7, 2003, but replaced the 555 with 666.

February 7, 2003

Defense Secretary Speaks to American Troops

And it is not knowable if force will be used, but if it is to be used, it is not knowable how long that conflict would last. It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.
You'll notice he dropped the world war III stuff. Because nobody wants to hear Rumsfeld say 666 and World War III at the same time.

It is importnant to note what the November 16, 2002 Gaurdian Unlimited article was about.

Please take a second to read: Iraqi army is tougher than US believes
The article is by Dr Toby Dodge who was an Iraq expert at Warwick University and an associate fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs and discusses the difference between the Iraqi army the US led coalition faced during Operation Desert Storm and what was the current Iraqi army in November, 2002.

According to Wikipedia, their were roughly 660,000 US led coalition forces with Iraq having around 1,000,000 troops. A little over 500,000 of the coalition forces were American. Of the roughly 1 million Iraqi troops most not the highly trained Republican Guard or Special Republican Guard types. There were 80-100,000 Republican Guard and 15-20,000 Special Republican Guard troops.

When Operation Desert Shield was turned into Operation Desert Storm the RGs and SRGs were pulled back to Baghdad and the regular Iraqi troops, who were hungry for the most part and sometimes wearing Chicago Bulls jerseys (looking for this link) other times, were left to die.

So, what happened to the Republican Guard troops that were extremely motivated to keep to Saddam Hussien regime in power? Well, rather than trying to turn them to our side, they were disabanded.

Department of State
Under Constant Updating
Background Note: Iraq

When major combat operations ended in April 2003, the Iraqi Army disintegrated, and its installations were destroyed by pilfering and looting. The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) officially dissolved the Iraqi military and Ministry of Defense on May 23, 2003. On August 7, 2003, the CPA established the New Iraqi Army as the first step toward the creation of the national self-defense force of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Support for the manning, training and equipping of Iraq’s security forces is being led by the Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq.
George H. W. Bush was smart enough to keep us out of Baghdad and the quagmire we are in today.

February 27, 2000

CNN20: Kuwait is Liberated

Kuwait is liberated, The Iraqi army is defeated. Our military objectives are met.
Why did George H. W. Bush stop the US led coalition troops short of Baghdad? Is it because he listened to his advisors who told him that Baghdad was protected by 95-120,100 higly trained Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard troops?

It is quite clear that George H. W. Bush knew that going into Baghdad was not a good idea. He had liberated Kuwait which is why Operation Desert Storm was turned into Operation Desert Farewell.

What happened to the Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard troops. What happened to the regular Iraqi army troops when they were disbanded on May 23, 2003, one week after George W. Bush declared "mission accomplished."

White House
May 1, 2003
Remarks by the President from the USS
Abraham Lincoln At Sea Off the Coast of San Diego, California
President Bush Announces Major Combat Operations in Iraq Have Ended

Thank you all very much. Admiral Kelly, Captain Card, officers and sailors of the USS Abraham Lincoln, my fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country.

Did all of those Iraqi troops become pizza delivery guys or do they sell rugs on the side of the road. Or, did they become insurgents.

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